The NBA draft has come and gone, and the final result is basically exactly what the experts expected. The Blazers made the "easy" choice, taking C Greg Oden over F Kevin Durant, following conventional NBA logic: build around the big man. History has proven that the best teams of all time, with the exception of the Bulls of the '90s, were built around a foundation of big men. The San Antonio Spurs of the '00s (Tim Duncan; I don't care what his official title is, to me he is a Center, not a Power Forward), Los Angeles Lakers of the late '00s (Shaquille O'Neal), Miami Heat of '06 (Shaq again), Houston Rockets of the mid-'90s (Hakeem Olajuwan), the great Celtics teams of the '60s (Bill Russell) and '80s (Kevin McHale), the Lakers of the '80s (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar). The list goes on and on and on...

 

Now the question is how long will it take for the Blazers to become a true title contender in the brutally tough NBA Western Conference. Clearly, the Spurs have at least 2-3 more years left as arguably the cream of the crop. The Dallas Mavericks are still a great (not good, great) team and will rebound from this year's fluky first round playoff loss. The Phoenix Suns are one very questionable suspension away from being in the conference finals for the second straight year (and you cannot possibly tell me the Jazz or Cavs would have stood a chance against Phoenix). The aforementioned Jazz, the Denver Nuggets, the Houston Rockets, are all up-and-coming teams that would easily be one of the two or three best in the East. Even the bottom of the conference has talent: the Warriors are a very good, if unconventional, team; the LA Clippers have one of the best C/PFs in the game in Elton Brand; the LA Lakers have arguably the game's best overall player in Kobe Bryant (and no, I doubt he will be traded). That's at least 9 teams that Portland would have to outperform to make it to the finals.

 

My prediction is pretty simple: the Blazers will be a playoff contender by 2008-2009, and will be a title contender by 2009-2010. Pretty soon, I know, but this team has done things the right way ever since their current GM Kevin Pritchard took over before last season. The team has rid itself of numerous malcontents and has brought in young, talented, good-character guys in their place. With the core of Brandon Roy (last year's rookie of the year), Greg Oden, second year forward LaMarcus Aldridge, and high-potential guys like G Jarrett Jack and F/C Channing Frye, this team has all the pieces to be very, very good. All they need now is a little experience.

 

Now this is not to say that I think the Seattle SuperSonics, who took Kevin Durant at #2, are getting the short end of the stick. In fact, I fully expect Durant to win the rookie of the year award over Oden. Durant has the pure scoring ability to make an impact immediately at the NBA level. Unfortunately, he is a similar talent to Carmelo Anthony of the Nuggets. A very good shooter with great quickness to the hoop, both of these players are well known for their scoring abilities. The problem is that a player like that is not going to have a big enough impact on any given game. Even as a good-to scorer, forwards will not handle the ball as much as a guard and will not command as many double-teams as a scoring center.

 

Durant will be very good right off the bat and will likely win rookie of the year with an average of 20-22 points per game, a very respectable number. Unfortunately, the Sonics simply don't have the pieces around him (especially given the departure of F Rashard Lewis that I expect) to be competitive in a great, and deep, conference.

 

Chris