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You’ve probably heard the familiar wisdom that the politicians with the most money will win an election. According to Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner in their book Freakonomics, this common sense is in fact false. They examined data from congressional races since 1972 and discovered the following.

“The amount of money spent by the candidates hardly matters at all. A winning candidate can cut his spending in half and lose only 1 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, a losing candidate who doubles his spending can expect to shift the vote in his favor by only the same 1 percent. What really matters for a political candidate is not how much you spend; what matters is who you are.”

They went on to debunk another accepted myth of campaign finance.

“And what about the other half of the election truism—that the amount of money spent on campaign finance is obscenely huge? In a typical election period ... about $1 billion is spent per year—which sounds like a lot of money, unless you care to measure it against something seemingly less important than democratic elections.

“It is the same amount, for instance, that Americans spend each year on chewing gum.”

I’ve read through half of this book in an evening, and I highly recommend it for anyone interested in a refreshing approach to economics. The book doesn’t focus on GDP and stock prices but instead on crack dealers, school teachers, online dating sites, and sumo wrestlers.

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Comments

  • silverwhisper said on Jun 11, 2007....
    i see i have something to add to my amazon queue. thank you, antimatter.

    ed
  • bloc said on Jun 11, 2007....
    however, the perceived need for money has resulted in many politicians spending a lot of time begging and less time doing their job.

    even if all the "truisms" were true I don't think we can legislate to solve the problem of stupidity. If people simply vote for the person with the most money then democracy isn't going to work period.
  • Antimatter said on Jun 13, 2007....
    Indeed, the candidates themselves probably don’t realize exactly how ineffective money is in a campaign.
  • lfbno7 said on Jun 14, 2007....
    What about presidential elections?  I suspect it's a different story there.  Because in presidential elections, many candidates drop out when their money runs dry.  And because in presidential elections, we so often have one multi millionaire going against another.  And because they flood the air waves with last minute commercials that must cost a fortune, and somehow I have to think that their campaign managers know what they're doing.

    Political ads in Congressional elections crack me up.  Half the time it is one guy calling another a crook, making it seem that the opponent really belongs in jail.
  • lfbno7 said on Jun 14, 2007....
    Something occurred to me.  I bet the money is really important when there are a dozen candidates vying for attention, in the year leading up to the nominations.  But once the candidate is settled on, maybe money is less significant than people think.  And in Congressional elections, you don't have a dozen people trying for their party's nomination, so it is never important.
  • lfbno7 said on Jun 14, 2007....
    I clicked on Spiritual Ethics so you should be getting a quarter.
  • Antimatter said on Jun 14, 2007....

    lfbno7, Levitt points out in the same chapter that (a) people only donate money to candidates who might win or will certainly win and (b) candidates deplete their war chests only in a campaign that they risk losing. Both of those could explain why so much money and time is being spent on the 2008 presidential campaign. Thank you for clicking the ads, though unfortunately they are not mine.

  • darklydreaming said on Jun 26, 2007....
    I think its a lot deeper than that and not willing to give up that easy.
  • kelly said on Jul 04, 2007....
    The perception is probably not helped at all by the fact that the candidates are being measured/rated in the news by the funds they are able to collect.  I've heard specifics on money raised on a weekly basis but I can't recall hearing any actual poll numbers.  Of course, I could just be missing it.  Has anyone else noticed that the money to opinion poll ratio is high?
  • Antimatter said on Jul 04, 2007....
    That's probably a good way to rate the candidates, actually. The money only goes to the candidates people think are likely to win.
  • bloc said on Jul 05, 2007....
    it depends on what you're measuring. I'd like to know what they actually propose for things like healthcare. All this crap about electability and winnability is a cancer on our democracy. 
  • Antimatter said on Jul 05, 2007....
    Strictly speaking, the President's position on health care doesn't really matter a whole lot. Congress has most of the power in that regard. The only power given to the President is the power to veto legislation approved by a majority of Congress (and risk the wrath of public opinion). I'm more interested in what the President plans to do with our military.
  • bloc said on Jul 05, 2007....
    the president has the bully puppet. It's very powerful. 
  • kelly said on Jul 07, 2007....
    "That's probably a good way to rate the candidates, actually. The money only goes to the candidates people think are likely to win."

    What I meant was, in light of your post it seems a little ironic that the criterion being used to rate the candidates is the one that doesn't seem to matter as much as we thought when it comes to getting elected.
  • kelly said on Jul 07, 2007....
    "the president has the bully puppet."

    Is that Punch or Judy?  I can never remember.  :-)
  • Antimatter said on Jul 09, 2007....
    Kelly, the amount of money they spend is the criterion that doesn't matter as much. :}
  • nosestud said on Jul 16, 2007....
    I am going to roast some Republicans on the Grill. Anyone want to come?
    BYOB & Marshmallows. Maybe a clothes-pin. Have you ever smelt burnt dog hair?
  • kelly said on Jul 19, 2007....
    "Kelly, the amount of money they spend is the criterion that doesn't matter as much. :}"

    So then the funny thing is that people are voting with their dollars in order to help the politician influence other people, which apparently doesn't work.  The money is acting simply as an indicator and not really doing much of anything useful, except act as a sort of primary race. And act as a way to remind politicians later--when it comes to creating friendly laws--of just who it was that helped them get elected.

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