In the next month or so, you're going to hear a lot of optimisim about the Chicago Cubs. There will be a lot of fans who are eager to see the new power lineup, and as a result, are going to write that the Chicago Cubs are pre-season NL Contenders. Sports Illustrated will probably do a feature article about how much money the Cubs have spent and how their new faces are reenergizing a nation of Cubs fans. Someone (probably Michael Wilbon of Pardon the Interruption) will predict a Cubs World Series.

I am sort of optimistic. I have serious reservations.

Cubs fans, you do have A CHANCE to contend in the weak National League, but you play in the toughest division (The NL Central) and I don't think it's a great chance. As much excitement as I have for you, I also have fear for a lot of your signings. Let me show you...

Great thing: Alfonso Soriano signs- The lineup immediately becomes as potent as any in the National League, maybe even all of baseball. You have a middle of the order that stacks Derek Lee on top of Alfonso Soriano on top of Aramis Rameriez, there are no easy outs.

Supplementing the big 3 are 4 consistent hitters in Matt Murton, Jacque Jones, Michael Barrett, and Mark DeRosa. That means that with the exceptions of Ceasar Izturis and whoever is pitching, the Cubs should have a serious lineup.

Bad Thing: Cliff Floyd simply makes you spend money you'll live to regret. Even if he's healthy for a few games, it's clear that he can't play every day. You sign him to be a 4th outfielder at best, but why would you need to when your best shot is with CF Felix Pie.

Also, this lineup has to play defense, every now and again. Alfonso Soriano played Left Field okay, how's he going to do in Center? If I'm a Cubs fan, the only position I feel sold on is 1B Derek Lee when it comes to defense. Of course, Derek Lee is coming off that catastrophic injury, if he's healthy, it's great, but if he's not, the Cubs can fall the same as last year.

Good Thing: The Cubs kept Wood and Prior around with one year deals that make sense both for the organization and for the players. If these two regain form, then the Cubs could contend (particularly Wood if he can move into the Closer Role, where he would be ideal).

Prior has the potential to be the Ace of the staff, if he's all the way back, which would push Lilly into the #3 role and Marquis to the #4 role and Rich Hill might develop to push them back even farther, wouldn't that be great?

Bad Thing: The Cubs signed Marquis and Lilly to big time deals that will keep them around Chicago. Does anyone remember what Marquis ERA was last year? I won't bring it up. Lilly is a .500 pitcher at best, and he'll be pitching in Wrigley Field. You want your .500 guys to be in the 4 hole and your worse than .500 guys (see Jason Marquis) lower than that. Wade Miller has been injured for a long time, when he's healthy he has potential, but of course, that's when he's healthy. Same thing goes for Prior.

Good Thing: The bullpen actually should be pretty decent, particularly if Kerry Wood flourishes (which I think he will).Neil Cotts is a good situational left hander, just like Scott Eyre. I know I'm discounting the idea that Wade Miller (if healthy) could move to long relief as a left hander. And if the Cubs have the same thought, then that's great.

Bad Thing: But supposing that Kerry Wood doesn't, are you really comfortable with Ryan Dempster as your closer? Or Bobby Howry? No. Those guys are setup men. They're not closers. You use them to bridge the gap in innings 7 (Howry) and 8 (Dempster) so that you can get to Wood (9).

Good Thing: You have Lou Pinnella who has a reputation for winning.

Bad Thing: You had Dusty Baker who (before he moved to Chicago) had a reputation for winning.


And I didn't even discuss the rest of the division: I haven't talked about the Cincinnati Reds (who I think have a better starting staff). I haven't talked about the Millwaukee Brewers (who I think have a better infield). I haven't talked about the Houston Astros (who made the playoffs, but don't have a chance without Roger Clemens). I haven't talked about the St. Louis Cardinals (who won the World Series last year and then lost a lot of the pitching that got them there).

OVERALL EVALUATION OF THE CUBS:

The key problem with the Chicago Cubs is that for every great thing that happens, you have a bad thing that you have to be concerned about. It's not enough to spend money, you have to spend money on the right players. I haven't talked about the other contenders, the Braves, the Phillies, the Marlins, the Dodgers, the Padres. Although I think the Padres, Dodgers, and Phillies are worse. I think the Marlins are better and I think the Braves are better.

But if everything breaks right, the Chicago Cubs have a shot at reaching their first World Series in god knows how long.

But what happens if one thing happens to break wrong, what happens if Wood and Prior get reinjured? Do you have confidence that Wade Miller isn't going to get injured? How about Jason Marquis pitching like a true #3 pitcher and showing that last year was an abberation? Are you feeling secure in Derek Lee and Cliff Floyd's health situations?

And if they get there, do you honestly think they're better than the Detroit Tigers? The Boston Red Sox? The New York Yankees? The Anaheim Angels? The Chicago White Sox?

I know that this article doesn't highlight it but I am actually a Cubs fan. I was born in Southside Chicago. I do root for them. But as a baseball analyst and as a columnist: I have serious concerns that won't go away entering the year.

Perhaps it's because there's a reason for hope.


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