By Joshua M. Boraz
This is a special column dedicated to the AFC West and the upcoming 2007 NFL free agency class.
Teams are organized by your team's cap room prior to signing players:
ERFA stands for Exclusive Rights Free Agent (that means only your team can sign him), RFA stands for Restricted Free Agent (it means that your team can match any offer made to him, and he has to stay), UFA obviously is Unrestricted Free Agent
When providing "What will probably happen" analysis, we will assume that it takes 4 million in cap space to address draft picks (some teams more, some teams less) but that 4 million will not be factored into any other section.
Here we go
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San Diego Chargers
Expected Cap Room: 24.6 Million
Total # of Free Agents: 16 (ERFA - 6 & RFA-5)
Top 5 Notable Free Agents of The Chargers:
#1- RB- Michael Turner- RFA
#2- LG- Kris Dielman- UFA
#3- OLB- Shaun Phillips- RFA
#4- ILB- Randall Godfrey- UFA
#5- OLB- Carlos Polk- UFA
Analysis of this group:
A smart team will offer big money to RFA Michael Turner. Almost every team will be interested in LG Kris Dielman, and there's a mighty good chance that he'll be gone if he doesn't sign before March 1st. Randall Godfrey should stick around a little longer, as should Shaun Phillips. Expect OLB Carlos Polk to go somewhere else.
Improvements should be made:
In the secondary, first and foremost. Quentin Jammer and Drayton Florence are good, but not #1 cornerbacks. A free safety to replace Terrence Kiel wouldn't hurt either. The team also needs one of two things to happen at WR, either WR Vincent Jackson needs to step up to become a #1 receiver in the off-season or they need to draft someone. Either way, depth will need to be addressed.
What will probably happen:
Expect the team to focus on the Kris Dielman situation immediately. If they feel they can resign him at a reasonable price, they will. If not, expect them to frantically search for a replacement. The linebacking corps will probably be depleted (in depth at leat) if GM A.J. Smith gets his way. The Michael Turner situation bears watching, the Chargers don't want to overpay the backup to LaDanian Tomlinson. Expect a team in need of a starting Running Back to try to test the Chargers in hopes of signing Michael Turner away. The Chargers want to keep him, but the right offer jeapordizing their future will take him away.
One Free Agent I would try everything to acquire: (if I were GM)
CB/FS Asante Samuel - New England Patriots
Final Thought:
The Chargers will probably lose their depth in order to protect their cap for next year, but with that being said, the draft will provide 7 more bodies out of 16. The Chargers will try to maintain the status quo (particularly with Dielman), if they can add a top cornerback and a great free safety, expect the Chargers to be one of the trendy Super Bowl choices next year.
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Oakland Raiders
Expected Cap Room: 14.105 Million
Total # of free agents: 18 - (6- ERFA & 3 - RFA)
Top 5 Free Agents:
#1- DT Tommy Kelly- RFA
#2- DT Terdell Sands- UFA
#3- LT Chad Slaughter- UFA
#4- FS Derek Gibson- UFA
#5- CB Duane Starks- UFA
Analysis of this group:
DT Tommy Kelly will get an RFA and the Raiders are praying for just that, because they'll match it. Guaranteed. He is an absolute must, an extremely underrated player just like his backup Terdell Sands who will probably get a big offer since the DT class is so weak. Speaking of backups, all the players listed here except Tommy Kelly are backups. The Raiders have no starters (except Kelly) scheduled for free agency which means that they'll more than likely bring back the #1 ranked against the pass defense.
Improvements should be made:
Center is set with Jake Grove and I like LT Robert Gallery (although Raider fans might disagree with me). Everywhere else needs to be upgraded, both guards and the right tackle spot because Langston Walker is awful. Depth is an issue everywhere that Brad Baker is not backing up. They obviously need a starting quarterback. Running back would also help because Lamont Jordan is a whole lot of nothing. Finally, a world class Tight End would make a world of difference although I expect that none of them will be available to the Raiders. An opposite Randy Moss WR wouldn't hurt either, although many people want to get rid of Randy Moss as well.
What will probably happen:
Lane Kiffin will have a frank discussion with two players: Lamont Jordan and Jerry Porter. Porter will ask for a trade and probably get it, but not before he hears Kiffin's explanation of why the offense is going to give him great opportunities. This decision will determine the course of the off-season. If they keep him, they have two WR playmakers to execute the offense. If they trade him, they'll probably get a pick or two which could go either way. If they cut him, they'll have the room to sign a WR but it adds a different direction to turn their head. Jordan will probably stick around hampering the team to upgrade at running back. They might draft someone, but it won't be the player who beats out Lamont Jordan. At that point, expect the Raiders to try and get a brand new offensive line, all the way across the board. Lane Kiffin will try to get young, proven linemen to protect whomever the next QB is. Backup OG Brad Baker might get a chance and LT Robert Gallery will be put on the hot seat. If he fails, Kiffin won't hesitate to replace him. Kiffin will desperately try to acquire a bonafide Tight End who puts the fear in the defense, but he won't have any luck this year. Finally, the team will remember that there is a second side to the ball and draft some linebackers to try to help its run defense, but this will more likely happen late.
One Player who I would try everything to acquire (if I were GM)
RB Michael Turner - San Diego Chargers
Final Thought:
The Oakland Raiders will improve but it'll be moderate (especially if Porter isn't convinced). Expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-8 wins.
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Denver Broncos:
Expected Cap Room: 7.6 Million
Total # of Free Agents: 10 (ERFA- 1 & RFA- 1)
Top 5 Free Agents:
#1- RG- Cooper Carlisle- UFA
#2- DT- Michael Myers- UFA
#3- FB- Kyle Johnson- UFA
#4- LB- Keith Burns- UFA
#5- LB- Louis Green- RFA
Analysis of this group:
RG Cooper Carlisle is going to get some money from someone, whether the Broncos or someone else. DT Michael Myers might sign with someone else if offered a signing bonus. Everyone else should resign without really hurting their cap.
Improvements need to be made:
On the offensive line, specifically at LT where Erik Pears is the starter and at tackle depth where RT George Foster lost his starting job and now his spot is in question. (He would vault to #3 on this list if released). WR depth is absolutely needed immediately. Obviously a backup QB who is satisfied with being a backup QB (think Damon Huard). A big time run stopping space eating DT would immediately transform the defense into a Super Bowl winner (beter than the Ravens). Finally, regardless of Mr. Pompei's analysis, they'll need to acquire another CB.
What will probably happen:
Right now, the Bronco's behinds are against the cap. They'll try to resign Carlisle and Myers and might cut QB Jake Plummer in order to make room for that. But if you lose Plummer, you need to acquire a solid #2 QB. The Broncos will really need to have a great draft and try to get 7 bodies to add to depth. Even if that happens, the Broncos will still probably not add anyone without a cap friendly deal.
One player I would try everything to add (if I were the GM)
DT Rod Coleman - Atlanta Falcons
Final Thought:
Expect the Broncos to either maintain the status quo or decline because very rarely do teams actually tollow my lead.
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Kansas City Chiefs
Estimated Cap Room: 7 Million
Total # of Free Agents: 16 ( 2 ERFA's & 6 RFA's)
Top 5 Free Agents:
#1- DE Jared Allen - RFA
#2- DT Ron Edwards - UFA
#3- MLB Kawika Mitchell - UFA
#4- QB- Damon Huard - UFA
#5- DT- James Reed - UFA
(Other Starters who are free agents: PK Lawrence Tynes- RFA, WR Samie Parker- RFA)
(Other notable free agents: CB Lenny Walls- UFA)
Analysis of this group:
You'll notice that the Chiefs are the only team with multiple starters and a notable after their name, the other teams don't have more than 5 starters possibly leaving or 2 backups who are so notable I've got to mention them. In short, expect DE Jared Allen to get a big time offer and absorb a lot of the Chiefs cap space (if they match). The Chiefs might franchise Allen to ensure he doesn't go anywhere, but if they do that then they'll sap up their cap room to resign their other players. It's not so much that the players they're losing are good, you could make a case for QB Damon Huard but he doesn't start. If they franchise Allen, expect teams to raid their other RFA's (particularly Layrence Tynes and their defensive tackles Reed and Edwards (who are backups on great defenses and solid starters on good defenses). Expect Lenny Walls to leave and someone to try to sign Kawika Mitchell as well. No matter what, the Chiefs have to keep Jared Allen one of the most underrated defensive ends in the NFL. A wise opponent will offer him a big time contract and force the Chiefs into a tough decision.
Improvements need to be made:
2 Solid Defensive Tackles would help. A bona-fide WR opposite Eddie Kennison that would force him into a No.2 role. A Pro-Bowl Left Tackle to replace Willie Roaf and a stud Middle Linebacker. At that point, depth all across the linebacking unit and the secondary (namely the safeties) would be a nice luxury to have.
What will probably happen:
All things revolve around the Jared Allen situation. The Chiefs will do what it takes to retain Allen, more than likely signing him to something reasonable before March 1st, thus preventing other teams from messing with what little cap room they have left after that signing. They'll then probably grin and bear losing everyone except for DT Ron Edwards whom they might be able to resign depending on the situation. Damon Huard might resign if he likes Kansas City, but another team might approach Huard with a starting gig and a nice contract. Bottom line is that right now Huard doesn't have a chance at starting with Trent Green entrenched in K.C. In the draft, expect the Chiefs to draft a replacement for LT Willie Roaf because the draft will be deep. Then expect them to address the lack of depth at linebackers. They might even be able to sign a Carlos Polk to alleviate that need, but more than likely expect them to address it in the draft. Expect no further upgrades on the offense, particularly at WR. None of this addresses the middle linebacker situation which they need a serious tackler, they will probably draft someone there and rely on hope. But if I were the GM, I would want try to sign a stud MLB to have a linebacking corps similar to the Denver Broncos. Someone like...
One player I would try everything to add (if I were the GM)
MLB London Fletcher-Baker - Buffalo Bills
Final Thought:
I expect the Chiefs to put themselves in a tough spot against the cap because other teams will force their hand with the Jared Allen situation. If they don't get placed in a tough place with that, they will be in a nice spot. I expect them to decline, somewhere in the neighborhood of 6-8 wins.
Coming up next will be the NFC WEST DIVISION! Have fun commentating.
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On Radio:
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http://www.sportscolumn.com/user/JMBoraz
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