• secretlife said on Feb 14, 2009....

  so according to the corporation i work for, which employs approx 20K people worldwise- the recession will last til at least next december-
  I don't think you'll see the numbers go down much further- and i don't think you'll see them go up til next year.
  also, i don't think anyone will be able to say with certainty whether anything in the stimulus caused any improvements-  that alone is pretty sad, but if things improve,  i might let that go.

• stopmediabias said on Feb 14, 2009....

  This may be the reality but it isn't what the Democrats are preaching, they have shoved this down our throats from behind closed doors.  How long have we been hearing that this will turn from crisis to catastrophe if we don't act now?  I wouldn't be surprised if after six months there is no change but after a year these Democrats own this economy and failed policy.

• secretlife said on Feb 14, 2009....

  well that's because the guy in charge is a fear-monger-
  that's an old tactic--it works well in community organizing-
   
  i've heard all kinds of numbers around this stimulus, and i believe more than 1/2 of this country was against it, but those who are supposed to REPRESENT us aren't listening.  There's something terribly wrong with the whole system- 
   
  i'm sick of democrats and republicans and party politics.  i'm sick of politics  period.  politicians never "own" their failed policies-  they just pass the buck-or re-write history (like barney frank & chris dodd) and prey on the ignorance of the masses-  while the middle class of this country and the people who pay their taxes and their mortgages and their bills are the ones who suffer- 
   
  i'm going to watch what's next--- the census and then immigration- you see, while the republicans were busy being FOOLS, the democrats were planning their "strategies"-  it's going to be a very very long year-  and then a very very long 3 more after that.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

• stopmediabias said on Feb 15, 2009....

  Well said.  I think Bernie Goldberg hit the nail on the head when he said "crazies on the left of me, wimps on the right."

  I don't think the country really knows exactly what is happening in this bill because no-one had time to read it, its over a thousand pages.

• KathQuiet said on Feb 15, 2009....

  No.  It's discouraging. 

• stopmediabias said on Feb 16, 2009....

  Now I thought the liberals would be all over this screaming of course it will work!  Perhaps they know what the outcome is.

• PieterOpie said on Feb 17, 2009....

  I think the assholes in Wall St. stole the wheels off your little red wagon and Bush was steering at the time.  Everybody wanted to keep going at full speed and kept piling up goodies in the little wagon all along the way.... and then you went under a truck!!!
  
  Mr Obama is trying to even out the dents and put some new wheels on the little crumpled wagon but down the street is an even bigger truck coming in your direction,
  
  Bush wrecked the steering wheel but Obama is busy with the wheels and needs time to fix the steering and get out of the way before the truck runs over you.
  
  I think your are going top get smeared all over the street!!!
  
  And THAT is my analysis.
  

• bloc said on Feb 17, 2009....

  It's funny how you give such a short timeline for success when you claim that Iraq will succeed one day in the far distant future and that will vindicate Bush. EVeryone sees through your partisan bullshit.
  
  
  
  

• PieterOpie said on Feb 17, 2009....

  Bloc:  Are you talking to me?  I don't recall any timelines, deadlines, timetables or any other measure by which to time anything.  You are mistaken madam, or more likely, you are trying to put words into my mouth again. 
  
  NOTHING will vindicate Bush.  Not now, not ever.  He was THE worst leader of any country throughout the history of the universe.   That is undeniable and it will be a long time anyone that hopeless will born on Earth again, if ever.....
  
  For the fifteenth time.... I am not affiliated with any party so I cannot look at it through partisan eyes or glasses or anything esle.   If I seem to favour the Democrats it is strictly because to a neutral person such as myself the Republicans appear to be bent on destroying the world starting with America.
  
  It is hard to remain unaffected in light of such complete idiocy.
  

• stopmediabias said on Feb 18, 2009....

  PO-Bloc was actually talking to me.  Stop being a candyass and actually make a prediction.  And there is something important that you need to know:  George Bush is no longer in power, so the Bush bashing just tells us you are evading.

  Bloc-"It's funny how you give such a short timeline for success when you claim that Iraq will succeed one day in the far distant future and that will vindicate Bush."

  The timeline is 6 months to a year and what has President Obama been saying?  Crisis into catastrophe if we don't act now!  You can't tell me that after a year, all these Liberal programs (if liberal socialism works) will not have created a reasonable number of jobs or show marked improvement in our economy.

  "Everyone sees through your partisan bullshit."

  Read the post, I stated I hope I'm wrong and I also stated in comments that I wouldn't be surprised after 6 months if nothing changed.  I think I'm giving our new President far more than you guys gave George Bush who was savaged for his tax cuts but what did the tax cuts do?  They got us out of the Clinton recession. 

  What do you think?  This is a stimulus bill, do you think it will get the economy going?

  PO-"It is hard to remain unaffected in light of such complete idiocy."

  Step away from the mirror and you will be all set. :>
  

• PieterOpie said on Feb 18, 2009....

  SMB:   I said:  "It is hard to remain unaffected in light of such complete idiocy." and you said:   "Step away from the mirror and you will be all set."
  
  LMAO.... LOL.... &  hahahahahahahaha!!!!   Excellent!!  9/10 
  ______________________________________________________________
  You said:  "....make a prediction"
  
  I did. 
  
  
  • Little Red Wagon = America
  • Wheels = the economy
  • Load = consumtion/credit
  • Truck = reality/depression
  • Big Truck= the future
    
  Now go back up a few posts and read my post again....
  
  

• husbandhater said on Feb 18, 2009....

  NO!

• PieterOpie said on Feb 18, 2009....

  no....?  

• bloc said on Feb 19, 2009....

  "The timeline is 6 months to a year and what has President Obama been saying?"
  
  Rumsfeld said the Iraq war would only last months, not years. Cheney said we'd be greeted with roses and chocolates. I'm not evading, I'm pointing out your unbridled partisanship.
  
  Here is a graph of GDP from the great depression. There are a couple of things to note. The economy slid down for a few years. Ours may still have downward momentum left in it. It's sort of like momentum in physics. Even if you apply a force in the opposite direction it may only slow the descent and make it stop sooner, but not immediately. Second point from the graph is that the time it took to get back to where it was took a lot of years.
  
  There is one more really important point. Notice that dip in 1938. That's when our government wrongly stopped a lot of the public works programs. Let's not make that mistake again.
  

• stopmediabias said on Feb 19, 2009....

  Bloc-FDR's government programs were like putting a bandaid on a dirty open wound, yes it will stop the bleeding and provide some relief but as far as actually solving the problem it didn't, it made it worse.  Look at this paper done by two UCLA economists who state if wasn't for FDR the Depression would have been a lot shorter.

  http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/article/6550

  But this really isn't the issue here, the main issue is if Liberals want to pass social programs as a cure for a bad economy fine, go ahead, we will see if they work but $30 million to the harvest mouse?  Billions to Global warming research, STD's, and Trains?  Which will create more jobs, giving people back their own money in tax cuts or pissing it away on mice, a myth, std's and trains?

  Granted if President Obama thinks we should spend all this money on these things fine, it's his show but right now in a crisis he says is as bad as the 30's?

• bloc said on Feb 19, 2009....

  "Which will create more jobs, giving people back their own money in tax cuts or pissing it away"
  
  Many studies have shown that spending is far more stimulative than tax cuts. People tend to save tax cuts during hard times which isn't stimulative at all.
  
  EVeryone knows that government spending got us out of the great depression. It's clear to everyone.
  

• bloc said on Feb 19, 2009....

  http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/08/new-deal-economics/

• curmudgeon said on Feb 19, 2009....

  The market tanked even more today. It's been tanking ever since this guy was elected.
  
  The stimulus will help only those people whom it is designed to help - government contractors and government employees. Folks in the private sector - where the vast majority of jobs have been lost - will find themselves shit out of luck.
  
  Our tax dollars at work.
  

• stopmediabias said on Feb 20, 2009....

  Bloc-Yes Bill Clinton said the other day there are hundreds of studies, but trying to explain spending for welfare and social programs compared cutting taxes to a Conservative is probably next to immpossible.  Cutting taxes nearly always leads to growth, the problem is growth leads to greed.  If Nobel Prize Laureate Paul Krugman said the sky is blue I probably wouldn't believe him if it was a sunny day. 

  Spending on World War II yes so technically it was government programs.  Its quite a different environment now.

  Curm-I wonder if the market is going to hit 15,000 again like it did under Bush.

   

• curmudgeon said on Feb 20, 2009....

  smb - it looks more like it will hit 5000. The market's down almost 200 points today because that idiot Christopher Dodd let it slip that the US might nationalize the banking system.
  
  These Dems are proving themselves to be every bit as corrupt and incompetent as the Republicans were. Just think - two more years till the midterms and four more years till this guy (hopefully) is out of office.
  
  What economist in his right mind would cleave to the Depression / WWII economic model as a solution for today's problems? Uh, the world's changed quite a bit since then, no? Industry and international finance are far more intertwined now.
  
  If we're going to hark on back to WWII to dig ourselves out of this financial crater, maybe what we need is an even bigger war. Hey, I heard Iran has enough material now for a nuclear bomb...
  

• KathQuiet said on Feb 20, 2009....

  Has anyone noticed that "the investors" tantrumed on Wall Street when they thought the stimulus was going to be be bound up for ages in partisan wrestling AND now that it's signed, sealed and delivered with a kiss (off), they're still tantruming?  It's all a fucking game being played by those who have the most to gain by driving share prices down, then sucking shares up like giant Hoovers and reaping obscene mass profits when their also artificial demand creates another upward pricing spiral.  Meanwhile, those of us who never had any business in the market, but bought in because retirement investing is sweetened by its status as a reducer of currently taxable income, see money we earned but never held (that's part of the deal, work baby work, then let us take a cut before you even see it!  it's painless!  you'll be happy in the end!) vanish into devalued funds.  Sell now and not only toss any hope of seeing the lost principal again, but get the tax right in the end (not happily).  Hold on and hope for improvement is my personal choice, but I've got to wonder how low can it go?  I'm harboring nasty thoughts of vacating the funds once they recover to at least the contributed values and socking the money into something that, if not liquid, at least doesn't just disappear - MORE LAND.  If nothing else it's a legacy for the grandkids.

• dyingman said on Feb 20, 2009....

  July 2009

  Dow at 8000

  Unemployment at 9%
  

  GDP annualized at 14.5 trillion
  
  

  Jan 2010

  Dow at 8800

  Unemployment at 7.5%
  

  GDP annualized at 15.5 trillion
  

• bloc said on Feb 20, 2009....

  "The market's down almost 200 points today because that idiot Christopher Dodd let it slip that the US might nationalize the banking system."
  
  Didn't a republican say the same thing this weekend. Lindsay Graham I think.
  
  @curm
  
  You say we shouldn't use the ww2 model, but you don't offer an alternative. I can't think of any good alternative to government spending on infrastructure.
  

• stopmediabias said on Feb 21, 2009....

   Dyingman-Good prediction

  bloc-Curm makes a good point, all this talk of change and all we are doing is reverting back to mostly failed policies of a far different era.

   

• curmudgeon said on Feb 21, 2009....

  bloc - the source of the problem is poor mortgages and slumping in the housing market. why not prioritize this new spending law on fixing that problem? Apparently even the mortgage assistance will only help about 4-5 million homeowners. Big deal.
  
  Actually if the stimulus were just a bit more creative, it might be worth something. The problem is this is just a bunch of make work to pay off specific constituencies.
  
  For example: Why build more brick and mortar schools (requiring, among other things, dirty diesel-powered transportation) when far smarter investments in educational delivery services via technology can be made to keep up with a constantly migrating and demographically shifting population? This makes no sense, unless the idea is to build schools, hire teachers, hire police, hire custodial staff, hire administrators, and all the rest. This tired old factory model is resulting in ever higher dropout rates and needs to be discarded. But of course he's tying us to this crappy, nineteenth century teaching method for a long time to come.
  
  When he was on the campaign trail. Obama promised millions of so-called "green jobs." If global warming is indeed such a crisis, if solar-wind-bio really holds the key to our energy security and future financial well-being, why does this economically vital endeavour get such a paltry percentage of government spending? Seriously, this is some old-world policymaking he's doing on his 30K blackberry!
  
  And of course he wants to cut defense spending. That's fine, if he wants to hamper his own ability to fight wars and respond to emergencies, that's his fist he's cutting off. The next engagement he loses will be the next election he loses. But the Air Force is working on a less expensive fuel for its fleet of aircraft. Can you just imagine the savings our civilian airline industry could reap if the Air Force comes through with a less expensive fuel? Is Obama even close to exhibiting the foresight, or is he, like every other doctrinaire liberal, going to just whack funding because he thinks weaponry and soldiers are icky?
  
  When Obama was first elected, he projected the image of an innovator. This new pork law is nothing but old school spending with no eye on return, except in Democratic votes.
  

• stopmediabias said on Feb 22, 2009....

  Curm-very well said. 

   Is it me or does the media portray Obama as the first person to think of the whole "green" thing.  How many tens of millions have been invested into this crap all ready and what has it amounted to?  Certainly we should never stop searching for better ways to do anything but we also have to look at the here and now.

• dyingman said on Feb 22, 2009....

  Thanks for the kudos, StopMediaBias,
  
  That prediction includes erosion or stagnation of the metrics through June.  Then a rise in the two months after. 
  
  
  As for spending...
  Tens of millions? On green initiatives?  If it meant starving the Suadis of the money they use to bankroll Wahabi Muslim groups, the type that finance Al Queda...isn't that worth hundreds of BILLIONS?
  
  No, Obama didn't invent green tech, but it was just getting off teh ground in 2000 and Bush put the whole thing in mothballs for 8 years because the Saudis are his bestest buddies.  An oil man does NOT encourage oil independence regardless of what he SAYS in his speeches.
  
  The here and now is getting dicey.  His concentrating on future technologies is Obama going for broke.  The Chinese are now VERY competitive for oil.  They're heavily invested in Canadian tar sand oil extraction.  Countries that have substantial nuclear power are going to be soaking up the last good reserves of uranium over teh next 20 years if Obama loses his mind and accepts Dick Cheney's energy advice.
  
  No.  Solar, Wind, Tidal, Geothermal, and efficiency initiatives including far more use of rail transport rather than trucking are the here, now, and near future.  Coal will fill in teh inevitable gaps. 
  
  As these intermediate plans are put in place, fusion nuclear power needs TRILLIONS of invesntment in league with other nations with means.  Space station level cooperation.
  
  Fusion power will kill the CO2 problem as well as make desalinization a viable option which will mitigate the worst of global warming repercussions.
  
  Obama stands on teh shoulders of giants and igf the media gives him too much credit, the important thing is I haven't heard him accepting it.
  
  Hell, even if he DID, as long as the right choices are made, he can claim to have invented the Internet for all I care.
  
  
  

• stopmediabias said on Feb 24, 2009....

  d-man-Now you are starting to lose me here.

  This the reality:  The only way we are going to replace the oil we import is by getting it from our own land.  No green bullshit, fairy tail schemes, glorious speeches and warm and fuzzy talk about tree hugging is going to replace oil.  The person or company that can replace oil with something as efficient will have the most massive cash machine the world has ever seen.  Do you think people haven't been looking for this?

  Another reality:  We have widdled our emissions down the point they DO NOT HARM THE ENVIRONMENT.  If they could harm our environment they would have back during the first age of the automobile when there was virtually no environmental regulations.  CO2 helps the environment and if you actually research this you will discover Al Gore is a professional liar.  If Al Gore was a conservative he would've been thrown under the bus when record cold temps were set all over the world.  Liberals make money and get attention for their good intentions not held accountable for what catastrophic harm those good intentions bring forth. 

  This Bush the oil man nonsense is so completely ridiculous.  Why did he piss away all this money on ethanol if he is in the pocket of big oil?  And what did it amount to?  Plus if Bush or his father were greedy oil men why the hell did they get into public service?  And good God this notion that the greedy oil companies want to halt any green technology is just stupid.  They supply energy and when new energy comes along they are going to get on the bandwagon and do you know how many other things petrolium is used for outside of energy?

   If we cannot replace oil now then we keep drilling, we keep building refineries, and we keep using it until we find something better.  To think wasting billions of dollars on something big companies have all ready invested in, including big oil, as the final solution to our energy problems is silly and dangerous and is only going to increase poverty all over the world. 

   

   

   

   

• bloc said on Feb 25, 2009....

  LOL

• dyingman said on Mar 02, 2009....

  "THIS is teh reality:"
  
  No.  It's not.  You've been TOLD that's the reality by opeople with a vested interest in having a great many peopel believe that.
  
  Wind power is becoming competitive.  If coal prices grow much more than its  previous peak price, wind will be less costly and you can look for massive investment.  It's called a "tipping point".
  When wind gets just a LITTLE cheaper, investment will skyrocket which will only make it cheaper still. 
  
  Solar is gaining too with plastic film replacing brittle silicon.  Solar water heaters are very OLD technology.  Plain ol heat in what amounts to a greenhouse on your roof heats antifreeze.  A plain ol electric [pump sends it down to yoru basement to warm cold water so not nearly so much electricity is needed.  This isn't pie in teh sky stuff.  It's present day.
  
  As for "Drill Baby Drill?"  Bush's own Department of Energy estimated that ANWR hodls a maximum of a six month supply of oil.  Six months and we're back to panic mode.  Off shore drilling promises sligthly better results but the oil is not only runnign out, it's getting rapidly more ex[pensive while solar and wind get cheaper.  Oil as an energy source is doomed.   Coal has a few more decades left but the faster we get rid of it, the more global hardship we'll avoid.
  
  Green bullshit?  What's the alternative to green?  The bullshit I hear is Republican oilmen claiming oil is plentiful despite not just an absence of proof but gas prices that shot over 4 dollars a gallon.  Chian wants to thrive.  India would liek a piece too.  If they get to where they want to be, they need energy.  When all 3 countries were going full tilt, we pushed Oil over 100 bucks a barrel.  When oil is 100 per barrel, solar power becomes cheaper.  Why would anyone buy fossil fuels and pay MORE for the privilege?  Green tech is inevitable.  Sunshine and wind cost NOTHING.  Men sinking drills into the earth are expensive.  In teh long run, it's no contest.
  
  Bush bought in to ethanol hoping to curry favor with Iowa corn farmers just like every other presidential hopeful said THEY would.  Same reason her rails against Castro.  He wants Florida's Cubans to support him.
  
  Why do people go into public service?  Ego?  Lucrative careers after they've served?  Enriching their corporations
  
  Haliburton was great for Cheney and Bush will be cashing in some favors thanks to the Hunt contract in northern Iraq. 
  
  Didn't hear about it?  No.  It wasn't covered by Fox News or Rush O' Hannity.
  Read it and learn:
  http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07/03/america/kurds.php
  
  Defense industries and oil are closely linked.  Defense companies are firm supporters of the Republicans and they get paid with very large contracts for weapon systems.  We use these weapons to dominate world oil supplies.
  
  Some decent history here:
  http://www.cfr.org/publication/7175/ussaudi_love_affair_predates_bush.html
  Actually pretty even handed, too.
  
  
  Politicians have skin in the game and they move the markets in teh way that helps them.
  Orrin Hatch cashed in for his son through passing Pharmaceutical legilation generous to particular companies.
  http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/mar/02/the-fog-of-congressional-transparency/
  
   
  
  

• AlOtto said on Mar 04, 2009....

  Forget you have lost value on your home. Forget you have lost 50% of your retirement IRA and market investment values. Forget you’ll be paying more in taxes for your home. Forget utilities are going up. Forget gas prices are going to continue to climb. Forget that it is the consumers who were responsible for 70% of the economies value. Forget the remaining 30% belongs to Government and Corporate responsibilities. Forget that there isn’t one expert explaining what went wrong. Forget economies are all about dollars and cents. Forget about adding up the numbers. You can forget ever finding out how this all occurred. Forget the government solutions being offered are done without knowing the real problem/issue. Forget government urged bailout money for the reason of toxic mortgages as the cause of this issue. Forget the foreclosures total only 12 billion dollars. Forget that the current term is now “toxic assets”.  

  This is a BANKING and GOVERNEMENT generated failure and is laced with corruption. Just like the Savings and Loan banking corruption of years past. Just like Enron, more corruption.  Ask yourself why reasons aren’t being offered to the American public. Why is it the experts or government can’t communicate this problem to us? They don’t want us to know.  It is the government who permitted the banking and financial institutions to gamble and risk disaster with our economy. We must demand for an investigation on this matter and now…. Not later. Government doesn’t want you to see how the conduct of our representatives contributed to this failure. Many will think this is a conspiracy theory, but look at the facts….. Oh yeah, what facts? None are given, only the ramifications are waived before us.  I for one want answers.

   

• KathQuiet said on Mar 06, 2009....

  I really don't care that I've lost value in my home, because we didn't buy it as an investment.  The only concern I have, though, with the lost value is that now my self-employed husband's business is almost at a standstill our mortgage payment is too much for me alone and it's not likely we can hurry up and sell, nor refinance.  So, I'm hoping to find part time work to supplement my full time career enough to take up the slack, but it may be futile, there are at least 150 applicants for each job and who wants a chubby middle-aged auditor with a mind of her own on staff?  Eh, this'll be interesting. 

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