March 3, 2009 --
Happily and luckily, my son Ryan is very computer-savvy, and he's
turned out to be a wiz on charts and chart-making. I told Ryan
yesterday that he may never again be making charts like the one of my
PTI below, but there it is in all its bearish fury. Needless to say,
with the primary bear trend recently reconfirmed as bearish, and with
my PTI plunging to new lows and with the Lowry'sstatistics
worsening by the day, my bearish view of the market has been confirmed
by the only item that counts -- the market itself. By the way,
yesterday was a 90% down-day, and these days are usually followed by
snap-back rallies lasting 2 to 7 days.
Russell's Random Comments
-- First, as subscribers know by now, I believe in the truth of the
markets. The markets are always telling us something. I've spent the
better part of my life studying the markets and trying to understand
the "language" of the markets.
The
Dow's extreme high, recorded in 2007, was 14,164. As I write the Dow is
below 6800. The Dow is now selling at less than one-half its peak
price. This represents a horrendous loss in a period of less than two
years. My interpretation of this violent action is that we are probably
heading into another Depression. I don't know how far the Dow is fated
to fall, but I do know this -- the stock market is still far away from
the values that existed at previous major bear market lows.
Watching
the stock market action, I'm getting the feeling (my instinct) that
we're heading into chaotic times. We're going to see things that the
most recent three generations have never seen or even imagined.
The stock market is a fair game. The Industrial and Transport Averages have been plunging to new lows simultaneously. The Averages, after two years of disharmony and non-confirmations, are now sinking together in harmony. This is authoritative action.
The D-J Utility Average, which often has a long lead time, is also
plunging in harmony with the other two Averages. I interpret all this
action as telling us that we are headed for very hard times.
Over
the last year I've been warning my subscribers that there's a "hard
rain a'comin." The hard rain has now arrived, but it isn't showing up
yet in the economy. It will -- I think by the end of the year.
My advice again is to get in cash and gold, and get out of debt. Don't buy anything that will cost you money to carry.
Sad
to say, good jobs are now becoming scarce. The average American needs a
job in order to bring in income. Daily we read about new lay-offs. Not
only does this reduce the national income, it breeds deep fear.
Against
all this, our new government seeks to hold the economy and the banking
system together by printing and spending us out of this mess. From the
beginning, I didn't think we could print ourselves out of a bear
market. In its desperation, the government is building up incredible
deficits and debts. Even before the current bear market began, I warned
that we were compounding our enormous debts into "dollar oblivion." Now
the process is being hastened. I think the markets know this. It's the
reason gold is up $48.50 or 4.98% over the last year.
What
should you and I do now ? My best advice -- "Prepare for the worst and
hope for the best." How does one prepare for the worst? One way is NOT
TO BE TAKEN BY SURPRISE. One reason this bear market has wreaked such
havoc is that it arrived so quickly. Nobody was ready for it. Nobody
had time to bail out, to get out of debt and jettison their stocks.
Which
brings up the question, "How does one prepare for the worst?" For
months I've been urging my subscribers to move to cash and gold. I
don't know how many took my advice, but my guess is "not enough." Ah
well, if you're young and healthy, count your blessings.
Technically,
one of the most discouraging items that I see today is the succession
of 90% down-days. These 90% down-days are panic "get me out of here at
any cost" days. A succession of 90% down-days usually exhausts the
desire to sell. But so far, that has not been the case. And that's
discouraging. How much selling do we have to experience before the
downside of this market (and the urge to sell) is exhausted? The sad
answer is -- a lot more.
BMW 328i
It's hard to make a name for yourself when your big brother's always the center of attention. Just ask the 2008 BMW 328i sedan, which seems doomed to toil
in relative obscurity while its steroidal 335i sibling gets all the
press. That's a shame, because the 328i is an unequivocal pleasure to
drive. It's also roughly $6,000 cheaper than a comparably equipped
335i.
Saab 9-3 Turbo X Sport Combi: Performance
Also common between Aero and Turbo X is the XWD all-wheel-drive system that apportions power
fore and aft depending on driving conditions. In the Aero, this should
appeal more to snowbelters, but in the Turbo X, XWD teams with the
myriad performance
improvements to create a truly compelling driving experience. You
emerge from every mountain corner more impressed than when you emerged
from the last, as the Saab
keeps begging to go faster and faster with its wonderfully
communicative steering and impressive grip. Body roll is kept in check
(unlike in the Aero) thanks to the lower and firmer suspension, bigger wheels and XWD system that sends more power to the rear on such occasions.
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