Erle Frayne Argonza
Good morning!
We’ve had so many wars here in the Philippines related to insurgency since way back hundreds of years. Among insurgencies here, the Muslim separatist and Maoist rebellions are the biggest. As such, given the perceived legitimacy of their causes, they gained international watch, sympathy and widespread support.
Because the conflicts here have been internationalized, the parties to the negotiations (rebels, Government of the Republic of the Philippines or GRP) have to mutually recognize the significance of 3rd party states or groups that can broker the talks. Both insurgencies did take this step seriously.
Malaysia, being a member of the OIC or Organization of Islamic Conference, had since brokered talks between the GRP and Muslim rebels. The GRP-MNLF (Moro National Liberation Front) was successfully concluded through a negotiated settlement in the 1990s, brokered as it was by the OIC.
Malaysia then volunteered to do the task for the GRP-MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation Front) talks, and had sent a peace team, both observers and facilitators, to the affected area in Mindanao (island group) where the MILF operates.
The brokering went fine for some time. There were violations of the ceasefires, causing the talks to stall at times. The Malaysia team was effective at monitoring the violations, submitted its recommendations to both parties, and then the talks went on again.
During the Erap Estrada regime’s watch (1998-2001), war erupted that saw major offensives launched by both sides. But the rebels weren’t destroyed at all, they simply retreated, and before long there was some calm in the area. Peace talks resumed.
Then all of a sudden, ‘rumors of war’ began to show up again in the south. Then recently the Malaysian team pulled out of the talks. As soon as they pulled out, each side of the contesting parties began coming out with scoop news about the other party violating the ceasefire.
It is clear that, as far as this insurgency is concerned, the presence of a 3rd party to broker the talks is very decisive a factor in sustaining the momentum of the talks, keep each contesting party in tow, and build mutual confidence between rebels and state officialdom. The 3rd party presence could in fact be the most decisive of all factors.
Then suddenly the Malaysian team pulled out. There is no lack of mutual respect between the Philippine and Malaysian governments, no ‘cold war’ between the neighbors are in the offing, so this factor is ruled out as a cause for the Malaysian pull out.
Puzzling! Strange! Who would try to solve this puzzle right now? Nice thought for the day.
[Writ 29 May 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]
